Aug
21
Over the last couple of years, we all have seen good people leave the business. I have witnessed much harder workers, smarter workers, and more networked workers leave. It has saddened me deeply. With each one of their departures, I have questioned my own dedication to this industry. I have asked myself if I was good enough to stay and if I had what it took to persevere.
I answer my self everytime (I really don’t have full conversations with myself, only little ones) with the same answer: what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.
I know that I want to do business with people who are going to be there for me. I don’t want to do business with someone who may not be around next year. When I buy a car, I like to buy the same brand of car every year. I even more prefer that I can buy form the same salesperson too. It makes life easier for me. They know me and my gruff ways. They know what I like and don’t like and it makes the whole process so much more efficient for both of us. People typically go to the same restaurants over and over again, unless they stinck and then they go out of business.
The same principle holds true for real estate agents and mortgage brokers. Most people tend to go to the same person if the service is right. Most savvy buyers and sellers prefer, too, to work with the same agent. If you were to chose an agent, who would you chose if all other characteristics remained equal? The person who just got into the business and who might not know yet weather they will stay or the seasoned pro who you know has made this industry their home. Remember, they are both the same in every other way, knowledge, personality, professionalism, cost, even looks. I think 99.99% of you would chose the lifer. Well there are lot less of us now and that makes us better.
It is not the only thing but it helps. I went to a seminar the other day and the speaker said he had been in the business for 6 years. I thought that was cute (as in less time than me) but then I realized that he was an old timer these days. Maybe not really an old timer, but he has weathered (so far) the storm. Props to him and to all of you who have stuck with it and recommitted to this industry. I do believe that your loyalty shall be rewarded someday.
When it gets tough, just remember what the marines say, “Pain is weakness leaving the body”.
Aug
8
I keep talking about the state of our market. Almost every blog I write has something to do with the economy and specifically, it’s impact on our industry. I am new to AR and so I still don’t understand how it all works, but what I do notice is that my blogs get very little notice and blogs titled like, “Save Big on Airfare!” or ” Sale at Target This Week” get many hits.
Sometimes, I feel like I am wasting my time. I am constantly dumbfounded by what gets people’s attention and what doesn’t. I am dumbfounded because what I think should get people’s attention doesn’t. I know my writing is not nearly as good as most people that blog. My titles are not grabbing and I don’t add enough cool graphics or links. I just write what’s n my mind and try hard to keep it short (mostly unsuccessfully).
The apathy that I see in AR mirrors the apathy that I see everywhere. I don’t mean to offend you, in fact if anyone has read this far in this article, they ae probably not the ones of whom I speak, so I shouldn’t worry about offending anyone.
The economy is tanking and this is unprecedented. The dollar is weak (although rising now); inflation is really out of control, when you factor in the two things that Uncle Sam doesn’t, food and energy;house values are still tumbling (no matter what you hear), credit is drying up faster than the North Pole; and consumer borrowing is at an all time high (almost every month). Our national debt is too high too count and our government wants to borrow more to save homeowners, who can’t be saved. On a side note, I recently heard that for every one dollar of service government delivers, it costs us taxpayers nine dollars. I’d rather not have that service thank you. I’ll buy my own.
Back to my point. We are an incredible people, us Americans. We have overcome so much and yet I wonder , in amazement, how? When I look around and see what blogs get hundreds of comments and what blogs get next to none, I wonder how we are going to get out of this mess. America’s appetite for too much food and too much entertainment has far overshadowed our appetite for knowledge, truth, justice and real (not borrowed) financial success. What happened?
I don’t know if we will get out of this mess in the same shape we came into it. In fact, I know we won’t. The sacrifices that we will have to make to get out of it will be costly. They don’t have to be, just like the government can deliver one dollar of service for less than nine dollars of cost, but they will. That is the cost of our brethren’s apathy, and we will all pay.
For those of you who have read this to the end, thanks, and for those of you who didn’t, blah,blah, blah…
Aug
5
When Will it End?
Filed Under General Thoughts and Comments | 3 Comments
That is the million dollar question, right? I hear so many different answers to that question everyday. From, “…we have hit bottom…”, to “…we have at least 2 more years to go…”. I don’t claim to know the answer but I do know that no one else can either and that is the real travesty, because allot of people are claiming to. That can only make things worse.
It was the general consensus only a couple of years ago that real estate only goes up. We were wrong, but that didn’t stop that myth from influencing thousands of buyers to buy over-priced properties, knowingly. Now, many of those same buyers (now homeowners) are rightfully questioning the whole myth of real estate’s valuation. In fact, they are realizing that they bought a home, not an investment. Even the buyers that bought early in the boom around 2002-2003 have seen all their gains evaporate. It is as if those years never happenned.
It is interesting because here in San Diego the rapid drive up in home prices was justified by people claiming that we were just making up for lost time from the real estate recession of the arly 1990’s. The argument was that real estate was stagnant for about 4 to 6 years here so we were just making up for those years with larger than normal price increases. If that is true and we have now wiped out all those increases than values should be in line with 1990’s levels. I haven’t seen that yet.
When people now claim to know when this will all end, they are committing the same fraud that they did when they said that this could never happen. Maybe we should all just wait and see.
For what it’s worth I still see a large percentage drop coming. I look at incomes and I rationalize that prices have to stay somewhat in line with incomes. It only makes sense. Excepting the all cash buyers and the $10 million homes, most homes are bought by working stiffs like you and me. We rely on our income to pay the mortgage and so it doesn’t matter if home values have significantly dropped if they are still so far out of line with incomes. Incomes are not rising these days, in fact many are going away completely, so until incomes stabilize I don’t think home values will. But I will say that I am just theorizing. I really just don’t know and I’m alright with that.
